Cost-Push Inflation The Impact of Political Transformations on Prices in Northeast Syria

• • This bulletin provides an independent assessment of consumer prices and inflation rates across all Syrian governorates, based on a monthly price survey conducted by the Syrian Center for
  • Policy Research (SCPR) since October 2020. The assessment relies on a methodology developed by the Center to calculate the Consumer Price Index (CPI), incorporating the components of the consumer basket, weighting structure, and market selection. The bulletin is based on the monthly consumer price survey covering 58 markets and 112 goods and services across different governorates and areas of control in Syria, using 2021 as the base year) SCPR’s Consumer Price Index in Syria).
  • The inflation surge recorded in February 2026 indicates a significant escalation in price pressures, driven by a combination of structural and short-term factors. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a Month on month (M-o-M) inflation rate of 6.5 per cent in February 2026 compared to January 2026, confirming that inflation was not only elevated but broadly driven by multiple reinforcing dynamics, most notably exchange rate volatility, rising transport and energy costs, colder weather conditions, and weak market oversight.
  • This inflationary pattern is clearly reflected at the level of major consumption groups, highlighting the concentration of pressures in essential sectors. Prices increased by 7.9 per cent for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels; 5.9 per cent for food and non-alcoholic beverages; 16.8 per cent for furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance; 5.8 per cent for health; and 5.7 per cent for transport, indicating that inflation was driven primarily by cost escalation in basic goods and services.
  • The spatial distribution of inflation further underscores its structural drivers. The governorates of Ar-Raqqa, Deir-Ezzor, and Al-Hasakeh recorded elevated inflation rates, which can be primarily attributed to the reassertion of control by government forces in Ar-Raqqa and Deir-Ezzor. This development was followed by a structural shift from the subsidized provisioning system previously in place under the Autonomous Administration (AA) to a liberalized pricing regime for strategic goods and essential services (including bread, diesel, gasoline, gas, electricity, and water), suggesting that institutional and governance changes have directly translated into price increases.
  • At the national level, the inflation pattern reflects a dual and uneven market structure. Data for February 2026 indicate a dual pattern at the national level: a relative convergence in the prices of tradable goods, which can be linked to shifts in trade policies following the liberalisation of imports, accompanied by the subsequent harmonisation of customs duties across areas under the SIG. In contrast, non-tradable services and durable goods exhibited significant price divergence, as their prices remained driven by local factors such as operating costs—particularly energy—income levels, domestic demand, and differences in the currency of circulation across regions, highlighting the fragmented nature of domestic markets.
  • The contribution analysis further clarifies the concentration of inflationary pressures. An analysis of contributions to M-o-M inflation in February 2026 shows that national price pressures (6.5 per cent) were primarily concentrated in two main groups: housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, which accounted for 52 per cent, and food and non-alcoholic beverages, which contributed 30 per cent, with secondary contributions from the transport group and furnishings and household equipment, confirming that essential consumption categories are the primary drivers of inflation.
  • Monetary dynamics add another layer to this inflationary environment. The Central Bank of Syria continued to maintain the official exchange rate (for remittances and exchange operations) at SYP 11055 per USD for the ninth consecutive month, alongside noticeable fluctuations in the parallel market, where the exchange rate ranged between SYP 11507 and SYP 11786 per USD, indicating a divergence between official and market signals. Despite these fluctuations, the Syrian Pound (SYP) appreciated by 1.7 per cent during February, with the average exchange rate reaching SYP 11655 per USD, compared to SYP 11773 per USD in the previous month, suggesting that nominal exchange rate movements did not fully offset underlying inflationary pressures.
  • From an income perspective, the data reveals persistent constraints on household purchasing power. The average monthly wage of a university-educated public sector employee (at entry level) in Syria stood at approximately SYP 1.13 million in February 2026, while the average monthly wage in the private sector reached SYP 1.32 million, and the average wage of a civil sector employee amounted to SYP 3.1 million during the same period, indicating disparities across employment categories.
  • However, these income levels remain insufficient in relation to the cost of living. The abject poverty line for a household reached SYP 3.11 million per month in February 2026, while the lower poverty line stood at SYP 4.89 million, and the upper poverty line at SYP 6.76 million, highlighting the magnitude of the gap between earnings and basic needs. An analysis of wage-to-poverty-line coverage in Syria reveals a deep structural crisis in income adequacy, particularly in both the public and private sectors. At the national level, the overall average reflects a severe shortfall, with the wages of a university-educated public sector employee covering less than 63 per cent of the abject poverty line, and this gap widening to exceed 83 per cent when compared to the upper poverty line, underscoring the extent of income erosion under sustained inflation.

Categories: Bulletins, February, Monthly Bulletins, Monthly Bulletins 2026, Publication

Tags: Bulletin, February 2026, Monthly, SCPR, Syria, Syria، نشرات الأسعار، مؤشر الأسعار،, ملخص النشرة الشهرية لمؤشر أسعار المستهلك والتضخم في سوريا – العدد (2) – شباط 2026