Cost Inflation in Syria: Discriminatory Wages and Price Drivers

• • • • This bulletin provides an independent assessment of consumer prices and inflation rates across all Syrian governorates, based on a monthly price survey conducted by the Syrian Center for Policy Research (SCPR) since October 2020. The assessment relies on a methodology developed by the Center to calculate the Consumer Price Index (CPI), incorporating the components of the consumer basket, weighting structure, and market selection. The bulletin is based on the monthly consumer price survey covering 58 markets and 112 goods and services across different governorates and areas of control in Syria, using 2021 as the base year) SCPR’s Consumer Price Index in Syria).
      • The inflation dynamics observed in March 2026 indicate that price pressures in Syria remain persistent and structurally embedded rather than temporary. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a month on month (M-o-M) inflation rate of 2.6 per cent in March 2026 compared to February 2026, confirming that inflationary pressures continued to intensify during March across the main consumption groups. In particular, the housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels group registered a monthly increase of 3.3 per cent compared to February, which suggests ongoing instability in the cost of essential services associated with rent and energy.
      • At the same time, inflationary pressures in food markets reinforce this broader trend. Pressures persisted in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group, where prices increased by 3 per cent on a monthly basis, indicating that food inflation remains a key driver of overall price dynamics. This increase was driven by supply bottlenecks and rising transportation and production costs, in addition to seasonal factors associated with increased demand during Ramadan and the approach of Eid, which together point to both structural and cyclical drivers of price increases.
      • Within this broader context of rising living pressures, the spatial dimension of inflation further underscores its structural nature. The monthly inflation data for March 2026 reflects the persistence of inflationary pressure across all Syrian governorates, following the elevated inflation wave recorded in February (6.5 per cent), suggesting that inflationary momentum has not subsided. However, inflation varied across governorates, reflecting differences in economic structures as well as monetary and trade linkages between regions, which highlights the fragmented nature of the Syrian economy.
      • This fragmentation becomes particularly evident in northwest Syria. Northwest Syria, particularly Idleb and parts of Aleppo, stands out as the most exposed to externally driven inflationary pressures due to its reliance on the Turkish Lira (TL), indicating a high degree of vulnerability to external shocks. The depreciation of the TL in the context of regional tensions has led to a direct transmission of inflationary pressures through the prices of imported goods—especially food, fuel, and even electricity supplied by Turkish companies—thereby reinforcing the role of exchange rate dynamics in shaping local price levels.
      • More fundamentally, the inflation pattern observed in March extends beyond price movements to reveal deeper structural changes in income distribution. However, the distinctiveness of March extends beyond prices to wages, as discriminatory wage policies have emerged as a key factor deepening disparities within the public sector itself. Differences between employees with similar qualifications and responsibilities have transformed wages from a tool of social protection into an instrument of sectoral and institutional segmentation, indicating a shift in the function of wage policy.
      • Amid these structural imbalances, monetary factors continue to play a critical role in shaping inflation dynamics. The Central Bank of Syria has continued its liquidity-tightening policy implemented since the fall of the regime and has maintained the official exchange rate (for remittances and exchange operations) at SYP 11055 per United States Dollar (USD) for the tenth consecutive month, suggesting a policy focus on nominal stability. Meanwhile, the parallel market experienced notable fluctuations, with the exchange rate ranging between SYP 11771 and SYP 12402 per USD, reflecting underlying pressures that are not captured by the official rate.
      • From an income perspective, the data further confirms the structural imbalance between wages and living costs. The monthly price survey indicates that the average monthly wage of a university-educated public sector employee (at entry level) in Syria reached approximately SYP 1.13 million in March 2026, while the average monthly wage in the private sector stood at SYP 1.25 million, and employees in the civil sector earned approximately SYP 2.9 million during the same period. These figures illustrate the variation across sectors but also highlight broader income constraints.
      • Despite these nominal levels, incomes remain structurally insufficient. Incomes remain insufficient to meet minimum living requirements, as the abject poverty line for a household at the national level reached SYP 3.20 million per month in March 2026, while the upper poverty line reached SYP 6.95 million, indicating a significant gap between earnings and basic needs.
      • This gap reflects a deeper systemic issue in income adequacy. An analysis of the coverage ratios of average wages relative to poverty lines in Syria reveals a deep structural crisis in income adequacy, particularly in both the public and private sectors. At the national level, the overall average reflects a severe deficit, as the wages of a university-educated public sector employee fall short by 64.5 per cent of the abject poverty line. This gap widens further to exceed 83.7 per cent when compared to the upper poverty line, underscoring the extent of income erosion under persistent inflation.

Categories: Bulletins, March, Monthly Bulletins, Monthly Bulletins 2026, Publication

Tags: SCPR, Syria