• • Inflation in a Transitional Context: Currency Issuance and Electricity Price Increases
    This bulletin provides an independent assessment of consumer prices and inflation rates across all Syrian governorates, based on a monthly price survey conducted by the Syrian Center for Policy Research (SCPR) since October 2020. The assessment relies on a methodology developed by the Center to calculate the Consumer Price Index (CPI), incorporating the components of the consumer basket, weighting structure, and market selection. The bulletin is based on the monthly consumer price survey covering 58 markets and 112 goods and services across different governorates and areas of control in Syria, using 2021 as the base year) SCPR’s Consumer Price Index in Syria).
    The inflation dynamics observed in January 2026 suggest that price pressures in Syria remain persistent, albeit partially moderated by policy interventions. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a Month on month (M-o-M) inflation rate of 0.8 per cent in January 2026 compared to December 2025, indicating continued inflationary pressures, though at a relatively lower pace. However, this overall figure conceals more complex dynamics, as the month coincided with the introduction of the new Syrian currency and the continuation of liquidity-tightening policies, which helped contain some price pressures in the short term, but at the same time deepened weak demand, disrupted cash circulation, and increased the cost of daily economic activity for households and small producers, thereby revealing the trade-offs embedded in current monetary policy.
    This underlying complexity is further reflected in sectoral price movements. Sectoral distribution shows continued divergence across major consumption groups, indicating uneven transmission of inflation across the economy. Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 3.8 per cent, furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance by 4.6 per cent, education and health by 0.6 per cent each, and miscellaneous goods and services by 1.8 per cent, suggesting that inflation remains concentrated in specific consumption categories rather than uniformly distributed.
    The spatial distribution of inflation reinforces the role of political and institutional factors. The governorates of Ar-Raqqa, Deir-Ezzor, and Al-Hasakeh recorded relatively high inflation levels, reflecting their exposure to field developments in northeast Syria during the same period, which translated into immediate price increases within these geographies. These dynamics suggest that shifts in control or governance arrangements extend beyond their political dimension to exert direct economic effects, particularly through their impact on transport and distribution networks and pricing mechanisms. Such shocks are more severe in contexts characterized by weak safety nets and high livelihood vulnerability, where the transmission of shocks to prices accelerates and their impact on living costs intensifies.
    At the market level, price behavior reveals a dual structure shaped by policy and market integration. Tradable goods in January 2026 were affected by the unification of control over border crossings and the harmonization of customs duties across most areas under the transitional government, which contributed to a relative convergence in the prices of many goods—particularly imported food items and some consumer products—across governorates such as Damascus, Homs, Hama, and Aleppo, and to some extent with Idleb and Aleppo countryside, despite the continued effect of currency differences. In contrast, non-tradable services remained more divergent, with prices determined within local markets according to income levels, demand, and population pressure, highlighting the fragmented nature of domestic service markets.
    Monetary conditions further shape these dynamics. The Central Bank of Syria maintained the official exchange rate (for remittances and exchange operations) at SYP 11055 per USD for the eighth consecutive month, while noticeable fluctuations persisted in the parallel market, indicating a divergence between official and market exchange mechanisms. Despite these fluctuations, the Syrian Pound (SYP) depreciated by 0.9 per cent in January, with the average exchange rate rising to SYP 11882 compared to SYP 11773 in December, suggesting that underlying pressures on the currency remain despite nominal stabilization efforts.
    From an income perspective, structural imbalances between wages and living costs remain evident. The average monthly wage of a university-educated public sector employee in Syria reached approximately SYP 1.12 million in January 2026, while the average monthly wage in the private sector stood at SYP 1.34 million, and employees in the civil sector recorded an average monthly wage of SYP 3.1 million during the same month, indicating disparities across employment categories.
    However, these wage levels remain insufficient relative to the cost of living. The abject poverty line for a household at the national level reached SYP 2.91 million per month in January 2026, while the lower poverty line stood at SYP 4.59 million and the upper poverty line at SYP 6.33 million, highlighting the magnitude of the gap between income and essential needs. Poverty lines recorded their highest levels in the governorates of Damascus, Rural Damascus, Homs, and Aleppo, while As-Sweida, Lattakia, Deir-Ezzor, and Al-Hasakeh recorded the lowest poverty line values during January 2026, reflecting spatial disparities in living costs and reinforcing the uneven social impact of inflation.

Categories: Bulletins, January, Monthly Bulletins, Monthly Bulletins 2026, Publication

Tags: 2026, bulletins, MonthlyBulletin for Consumer Price Index and Inflation in Syria Issue(1) – January 2026, SCPR, Syria