Executive Summary

• Syria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 8.1 per cent in September 2026 compared with August, from 1008.9 to 1090.4 points. Annual inflation reached approximately 34.1 per cent. Prices increased in all main consumption groups and all fourteen governorates, bringing the general price level to around 10.9 times its level in the 2021 base year. Higher fuel prices drove this acceleration as their effects spread to living, production and service costs.
• Inflation was concentrated in housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, which added approximately 5.09 percentage points to the overall rate, followed by transport at around 1.99 percentage points and food and non-alcoholic beverages at around 0.61 percentage points. Together, these three groups accounted for approximately 94.9 per cent of monthly inflation. Transport prices rose by 30 per cent, and housing, water and energy by 11 per cent, including a 28.9 per cent increase in electricity, gas and other fuels. Food prices rose by 2 per cent. These increases affected needs on which households find it difficult to cut spending, as well as inputs essential to production and service provision.
• Faster price increases coincided with the introduction of new fuel prices on 13 September, adding pressure to living, production and service costs. Comparisons between local prices and international refined product benchmarks require common currencies, reference periods and conversion methods. Such comparisons alone cannot establish import costs or profit margins. Assessing the fiscal and social effects of the decision requires considering suppliers’ revenues alongside the costs of operating public facilities and the burdens on households and enterprises. It also requires disclosure of the components of pricing and the use of any additional resources generated.
• Quneitra recorded the highest monthly inflation rate among governorates at 11.2 per cent, followed by Ar-Raqqa at 10.2 per cent and Hama at 9.5 per cent. Idleb recorded the lowest rate at 3.4 per cent. The gap between the highest and lowest rates was 7.8 percentage points. Analysis of spatial price dispersion found that housing, water, electricity and fuels had the highest unweighted mean of item-level coefficients of variation, at approximately 0.471, followed by education and health at 0.394 and 0.388, compared with 0.038 for communication. These results show differences in price changes and dispersion across areas. Higher inflation in a governorate does not necessarily mean that it has the highest living costs.
• The average parallel-market USD exchange rate rose to approximately SYP 13436, up by 2 per cent from August. It also rose by 4.8 per cent between the beginning and end of September. The official rate and the remittance and cash exchange rate remained at SYP 12250 per USD, leaving a gap of around 9.7 per cent between these rates and the average parallel-market rate. The Syrian pound depreciated more rapidly after fuel prices were raised, although establishing a causal relationship requires further analysis. The average USD exchange rate against the Turkish lira (TL) rose by 1.5 per cent. Inflation measured in Turkish lira reached 3.4 per cent in Idleb and 6.3 per cent in Aleppo countryside, compared with 1.84 per cent in Türkiye. This underlines the role of local supply, production, transport and service conditions in explaining price movements alongside changes in the currency’s value.
• Comparison with August shows that nominal wage increases for the three reference categories did not offset September’s price increases. Using the national CPI as an illustrative benchmark, the real value of a university graduate’s public sector wage fell by approximately 7.4 per cent, a shop worker’s wage by 4.5 per cent and a university graduate’s civil society sector wage by 5.0 per cent. These results distinguish nominal wage increases from gains in purchasing power. Assessing the effects on workers nevertheless requires accounting for the currency in which wages are paid, the cost of needs where they live, deductions, and the regularity of work and wage payments.
• The household abject poverty line reached approximately SYP 3.71 million per month, the lower line around SYP 5.84 million and the upper line around SYP 8.06 million. A university graduate’s public sector wage covered only 40.6 per cent of the abject poverty line, compared with 75.5 per cent for a shop worker. Even a university graduate’s civil society sector wage, which provided the highest coverage among the three categories, fell slightly short of the lower poverty line and covered 71.9 per cent of the upper line. These results show how little one wage can cover of a household’s needs. Protecting wages and employment, adapting assistance to local living costs and household resources, and ensuring affordable energy and services are therefore central to the response to the price shock.

Categories: Bulletins, Monthly Bulletins, Monthly Bulletins 2026, Publication, September

Tags: Monthly Bulletin on Consumer Prices and Inflation in Syria, SCPR, September, Syria