Syrian Center for Policy Research:

• The bulletin provides an independent assessment of consumer prices and inflation rates in all Syrian regions based on a monthly survey of consumer prices carried out by the Syrian Center for Policy Research (SCPR) since October 2020. The SCPR had developed a methodology for building a price index based on components of the consumer basket, weighting, and market selection (See SCPR’s Consumer Price Index in Syria)
• Consumer goods prices in Syria experienced an increase during March 2025, recording a Month on month (M-o-M) inflation rate of 1.2 per cent compared to the previous month, and a Year on year (Y-o-Y) inflation rate of 14.8 per cent compared to March 2024. This rise occurred following a wave of decreases that succeeded the inflationary shock in December 2024.
• The recent rise is attributed to a combination of seasonal, structural, and security factors. On one hand, the arrival of the Eid al-Fitr season contributed to increased demand for consumer goods and clothing, exerting pressure on prices amidst the depreciation of the Syrian Pound (SYP). On the other hand, economic factors played a significant role, including repercussions related to salary disbursement mechanisms in the public sector, the persistence of the liquidity shortage problem in the market, the impact of property control issues, and even the temporary increase in demand resulting from the return of expatriate tourists.
• M-o-M inflation rates varied across Syrian governorates during March 2025. Most governorates witnessed an increase in consumer goods prices ranging between 0.2 per cent and 4.4 per cent, with the highest inflation rates recorded in Ar-Raqqa, Al-Hasakeh, and Aleppo. Conversely, four governorates witnessed a decline in prices: Deir-Ezzor, As-Sweida, Quneitra, and Tartous, while other governorates such as Homs, Damascus, Lattakia, and Rural Damascus recorded a slight increase.
• The “Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels” sector was the largest contributor to inflation during March 2025. The large-scale displacement of residents from Tartous and Lattakia governorates, following significant violence and severe massacres that occurred on the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th of March 2025, impacted housing rents.
• The value of the SYP declined against the United States Dollar (USD) by 7.3 per cent in the parallel market during March 2025, where the average exchange rate reached SYP 10,446 per USD compared to SYP 9,738 in February 2025. Despite this decline, the gap between the official and parallel rates narrowed following the Central Bank’s decision on March 23, 2025, to lower the official rate from SYP 13,266 to SYP 12,060 per USD.
• Data regarding wages for March 2025 in Syria revealed significant disparity between different sectors. The average monthly wage for a newly appointed university graduate in the public sector amounted to approximately SYP 628 thousand. In contrast, a worker in the private sector earns a higher average wage, reaching SYP 1.06 million, while workers in the civil sector receive wages reaching the limits of SYP 2.25 million. This wage variance highlights the low wages of workers in the public sector.
• The abject poverty line, which reflects deprivation of food security, reached SYP 2.5 million per month. The lower poverty line amounted to SYP 3.97 million, while the upper poverty line rose to SYP 5.48 million, indicating that the ability to achieve a decent standard of living has surpassed the majority of the population. The governorates of Damascus, Homs, Rural Damascus, and Tartous recorded the highest poverty line values, reflecting a rise in the cost of living in urban centers. Conversely, the governorates of As-Sweida, Deir-Ezzor, and Lattakia recorded the lowest poverty line values.
• An acute gap exists between public sector employee wages and poverty lines across the different control zones in Syria. Employees in areas dealing in SYP and subject to the “Caretaker Interim Government” face the worst conditions, as their wages cover only 5.6 per cent of their basic needs, confirming a significant weakness in the purchasing power of salaries. Although the situation is relatively better in the Autonomous Administration (AA) areas and the Caretaker Government areas dealing in the Turkish Lira (TL)—where wages cover 24 per cent and 39 per cent of needs, respectively—these figures remain below the lower poverty line. This implies that the salaries of all public sector employees are insufficient to provide a decent life. This crisis is exacerbated by decisions to suspend state employees from work in official institutions, which increases unemployment rates and weakens their potential for economic stability.
  

  

Categories: Bulletins, March, Monthly Bulletins, Monthly Bulletins 2025, Publication

Tags: Monthly Bulletin, SCPR, Syria