Syrian Center for Policy Research:

• The bulletin provides an independent assessment of consumer prices and inflation rates in all Syrian regions based on a monthly survey of consumer prices carried out by the Syrian Center for Policy Research (SCPR) since October 2020. The SCPR had developed a methodology for building a price index based on components of the consumer basket, weighting, and market selection (See SCPR’s Consumer Price Index in Syria)
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the period from July 2024 to June 2025 indicates the presence of inflationary pressures in the Syrian economy, which were sharply exacerbated in July 2025 due to the events in As-Sweida. The siege imposed on the governorate caused a complete disruption in supply chains and a severe shortage of basic goods therein.
• The overall monthly inflation rate in all Syrian governorates (excluding As-Sweida) reached 1.6 per cent during July 2025. Major consumption groups witnessed a notable rise in prices; the “Housing, Water, Electricity, and Gas” group prices rose by 3.1 per cent, and the “Tobacco” group witnessed a rise of 5.4 per cent as a result of the rise in prices of certain local tobacco brands due to their unavailability in the market.
• As-Sweida governorate witnessed an unprecedented inflationary jump reaching 138 per cent in July 2025, as a result of the bloody events and the economic siege. In contrast, other governorates recorded significant variation in inflation rates: Al-Hasakeh topped the list with 2.8 per cent, followed by Idleb and Aleppo with 2.6 per cent, then Quneitra governorate with 2.3 per cent.
• The primary driver of monthly inflation in Syria during July 2025 was the “Housing, Electricity, Water, Gas, and Other Fuels” sector, contributing 58 per cent to the total inflation. This dominance indicates that fluctuations in energy prices, which are directly correlated with the SYP exchange rate against the USD, exert inflationary pressure on both cost of living and production costs. Part of this significant contribution is also attributed to the rise in rents in major cities, increasing the financial burden on households.
• The Central Bank of Syria continued the policy of fixing the official exchange rate for remittances and exchange at SYP 11,055 per USD during July 2025. Conversely, the exchange rate in the informal market witnessed a gradual rise, as the value of the SYP depreciated by 4.5 per cent to reach approximately SYP 10,350 per USD by the end of the month. This decline is attributed to structural factors, most notably persistent inflation, in addition to the announcement of the intention to change the currency in the near term by removing two zeros, which drove individuals and companies towards dollarization to protect their savings.
• The average monthly wage for a newly appointed university graduate employee in the Syrian public sector rose to reach SYP 1.1 million in July 2025, driven by the Transitional Government’s decision to raise wages by 200 per cent. In comparison, the average monthly wage in the private sector reached SYP 1.13 million, while the civil sector employee recorded the highest average monthly wage at around SYP 2.33 million during the same month.
• The household abject poverty line, which measures deprivation of food, reached SYP 2.74 million monthly in July 2025 at the national level, while the lower poverty line reached SYP 4.31 million and the upper poverty line reached SYP 5.95 million. Analysis of the geographical distribution of poverty lines shows acute disparity, with As-Sweida and Damascus governorates recording the highest levels, while Al-Hasakeh, Deir-Ezzor, and Lattakia recorded the lowest values.
• The direct repercussions of the security and economic shock in As-Sweida governorate caused a catastrophic and unprecedented leap in poverty lines within the governorate; the upper poverty line there rose to SYP 8.58 million. This sharp increase highlights the depth of the economic and social deterioration facing the governorate.

  Monthly Inflation (M-o-M) for consumer prices in Syria during July 2025 (in per cent)

  

Categories: Bulletins, July, Monthly Bulletins, Monthly Bulletins 2025, Publication

Tags: Monthly Bulletin, SCPR, Syria