Syrian Center for Policy Research:

The bulletin provides an independent assessment of consumer prices and the rate of inflation in all Syrian regions, based on a monthly survey of consumer prices carried out by the Syrian Center for Policy Research (SCPR) since October 2020. The SCPR had developed a methodology for building a price index based on components of consumer basket, weighting, and market selection (See SCPR’s Consumer Price Index in Syria)

This bulletin presents the findings of the monthly consumer price survey and the changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2024 (with 2021 as the base year) broken down by region and the major consumption groups. Based on the CPI changes, the bulletin provides an estimate of the cost of living and poverty lines at the local level in all Syrian regions.

The following results are highlighted:

• Between November 27, 2024, and December 8, 2024, Syria witnessed a large-scale attack by the “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” forces and their allied factions on areas controlled by the Syrian regime, as part of the “Battle of Deterring Aggression.” The Syrian regime’s army collapsed quickly during this battle, and the Hay’at forces managed to seize control of all the provinces that were under the regime’s control. On the morning of December 8, 2024, the Syrian people officially announced the end of a dark era of the previous regime’s tyranny, after a struggle that lasted more than 14 years, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dead, wounded, and missing.
• The consumer price index witnessed an inflationary shock during December 2024, as the monthly inflation rate (M-o-M) reached 15.1 per cent within Syria during December 2024 compared to November 2024, and the annual inflation rate (Y-o-Y) reached 49.7 per cent.
• The consumer price index recorded a significant decline in most major consumption groups, with the exception of the Transportation group and the Housing, Water, Electricity, and Gas group, which witnessed an unprecedented rise since August 2023. The monthly inflation rate for the Transportation group reached 45 per cent during December 2024 compared to the previous month, and the monthly inflation rate for the Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and other fuel groups reached 41.7 per cent.
• The main reasons for the inflationary shock that occurred in December 2024 are summarized as follows: 1) The decision to raise the prices of subsidized bread on the one hand, and 2) The decisions to liberalize the prices of diesel, gasoline, and domestic gas on the other hand, which directly affected transportation costs, and will have a future impact on the costs of agricultural and industrial production. 
• Assuming that the new government did not take its decisions regarding the liberalization of fuel prices and raising the price of subsidized bread (the continuity scenario), the price index at the whole of Syria would have reached 722 instead of 853 (base year 2021), and prices would have decreased by an average of 2.5 per cent compared to November 2024.
• The governorates that were under the control of the Syrian government recorded the highest levels of monthly inflation (M-o-M) during December 2024, with rates ranging between 11.2 per cent and 24.4 per cent, led by the governorates of Hama and Quneitra with a monthly inflation rate of 24.4 per cent for each, followed by the governorate of Tartous with a rate of 23.5 per cent, then the governorate of As-Sweida with a rate of 22.7 per cent, then the governorate of Homs with a rate of 22.4 per cent, On the other hand, Idleb recorded a 1 per cent decrease in CPI, while Ar-Raqqa saw a decline of 0.6 per cent, and Al-Hasakeh by 0.3 per cent.
• In December 2024, the Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuel oils group contributed significantly to the monthly inflation (with 15.1 per cent), making up 91.1 per cent of the total, followed by the Transportation group with a contribution of 19.7 per cent. While the Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages group contributed to reducing the inflation rate by 8 per cent during December 2024.
• The inflation witnessed by the country in December 2024 led to a decrease in the real wages of government employees by 14.6 per cent, and by 12 per cent for workers in the private and civil sectors compared to November 2024. However, the salaries of government employees in GoS areas, numbering 1.25 million workers, were not disbursed during December 2024. Despite the Syrian Interim Caretaker Government promising a 400 per cent wage increase when it raised the bread and fuel prices.
• In December 2024, the abject poverty line for families (as an indicator of food deprivation) reached SYP 3.08 million per month within Syria, an increase of SYP 154 thousand compared to November 2024. The lower poverty line reached SYP 4.84 million, an increase of SYP 243 thousand compared to the previous month. The upper poverty line reached SYP 6.68 million, an increase of SYP 335 thousand compared to the last month.
• When comparing nominal wages (at current prices) with monthly poverty lines, it becomes clear that the wage gap from the abject poverty line reached 77 per cent for university-educated employees in the public sector, 63.3 per cent for workers in the private sector, and 2.3 per cent for the workers in the civil sector during December 2024.

Categories: Bulletins, December, Monthly Bulletins, Monthly Bulletins 2024, Publication

Tags: Monthly Bulletin, SCPR, Syria