Monthly Bulletin for Consumer Price Index and Inflation in Syria Issue(12) – December 2025
6 Minute
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The results of the December 2025 survey indicate that the observed slowdown in inflation should not be interpreted as an improvement in living conditions; rather, it reflects a fragile stabilization at a persistently high price level, suggesting that underlying structural pressures remain unresolved. The overall Month on month (M-o-M) inflation rate reached 1.3 per cent, driven primarily by the “housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels” group, which recorded a price increase of approximately 3.2 per cent, indicating that essential services continue to be the main drivers of inflation. Meanwhile, the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at 833 points—more than eight times higher than the 2021 base year—indicating that while the economy has moved beyond acute price shocks, it has not exited the crisis of purchasing power, and that price levels remain structurally elevated.
This inflationary pattern is largely driven by policy-induced cost increases and their transmission across sectors. Inflation during this month is mainly attributed to the increase in electricity tariffs through the formal grid, and the resulting cascading effects across related sectors, highlighting the central role of energy costs in shaping overall price dynamics. This was compounded by a notable rise in housing rents in major urban centers (Damascus and its surroundings, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, and Idleb), suggesting that urban demand pressures and cost pass-through effects are intensifying housing-driven inflation.
In contrast, the decision to unify university fees helped ease price pressures within the education group, particularly in universities in Idleb and Aleppo countryside, where costs declined from a range of USD 150–300 to an annual nominal fee of SYP 60000, indicating that targeted policy interventions can partially mitigate inflationary pressures in specific sectors.
At the regional level, inflation dynamics reveal significant spatial disparities. Price surveys reveal a clear pattern of fragmentation across Syrian regions, indicating that inflation is not uniformly distributed. Idleb recorded the highest inflation peak at 6.8 per cent, driven by a sharp increase in housing costs of 30.8 per cent, underscoring the centrality of housing in driving local inflation.
A similar trend is observed in Hama (overall inflation of 4.8 per cent and housing at 10.5 per cent), suggesting that population-dense urban
centers are increasingly experiencing housing-driven inflation that absorbs the largest share of household income.
This fragmentation is further evident when examining price variability across economic zones. In terms of variance across the three economic zones (SYP-Governed Areas (SYP-GA), TL-Governed Areas (TL-GA), and Autonomous Administration (AA) areas), the “furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance” group exhibits the highest price variability, followed by transport, indicating sensitivity to local cost structures and supply conditions. In contrast, food, beverages, and tobacco groups maintained a low coefficient of variation, indicating relative price convergence in essential tradable goods across internal and external markets, which reflects the influence of trade integration and common pricing benchmarks.
Despite this relative price stabilization in some sectors, social outcomes remain under severe pressure.
Wage and poverty indicators show that relative price stability has not translated into social stability, highlighting a disconnect between macro-level indicators and household welfare. Wages in both the public and private sectors remain below the abject poverty line, with increasing reliance on remittances and external income sources, indicating a structural inadequacy in domestic income generation. Accordingly, the central issue at the end of 2025 is not only inflation control, but also preventing its transformation into a persistent pattern of rising costs for the reproduction of daily life—particularly in housing, energy, and transport—suggesting that without addressing these core sectors, inflation will continue to erode living standards.
Bulletins – Issue(12) –December 2025
Inflation in a Fragmented Economy
Unequal Foreign Trade under Dollarization
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Bulletins – Issue(12) –December 2025
Monthly Bulletin for Consumer Price Index and Inflation in Syria Issue(12) –December 2025
6 Minutes
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The results of the December 2025 survey indicate that the observed slowdown in inflation should not be interpreted as an improvement in living conditions; rather, it reflects a fragile stabilization at a persistently high price level, suggesting that underlying structural pressures remain unresolved. The overall Month on month (M-o-M) inflation rate reached 1.3 per cent, driven primarily by the “housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels” group, which recorded a price increase of approximately 3.2 per cent, indicating that essential services continue to be the main drivers of inflation. Meanwhile, the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at 833 points—more than eight times higher than the 2021 base year—indicating that while the economy has moved beyond acute price shocks, it has not exited the crisis of purchasing power, and that price levels remain structurally elevated.
This inflationary pattern is largely driven by policy-induced cost increases and their transmission across sectors. Inflation during this month is mainly attributed to the increase in electricity tariffs through the formal grid, and the resulting cascading effects across related sectors, highlighting the central role of energy costs in shaping overall price dynamics. This was compounded by a notable rise in housing rents in major urban centers (Damascus and its surroundings, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, and Idleb), suggesting that urban demand pressures and cost pass-through effects are intensifying housing-driven inflation.
In contrast, the decision to unify university fees helped ease price pressures within the education group, particularly in universities in Idleb and Aleppo countryside, where costs declined from a range of USD 150–300 to an annual nominal fee of SYP 60000, indicating that targeted policy interventions can partially mitigate inflationary pressures in specific sectors.
At the regional level, inflation dynamics reveal significant spatial disparities. Price surveys reveal a clear pattern of fragmentation across Syrian regions, indicating that inflation is not uniformly distributed. Idleb recorded the highest inflation peak at 6.8 per cent, driven by a sharp increase in housing costs of 30.8 per cent, underscoring the centrality of housing in driving local inflation.
A similar trend is observed in Hama (overall inflation of 4.8 per cent and housing at 10.5 per cent), suggesting that population-dense urban
centers are increasingly experiencing housing-driven inflation that absorbs the largest share of household income.
This fragmentation is further evident when examining price variability across economic zones. In terms of variance across the three economic zones (SYP-Governed Areas (SYP-GA), TL-Governed Areas (TL-GA), and Autonomous Administration (AA) areas), the “furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance” group exhibits the highest price variability, followed by transport, indicating sensitivity to local cost structures and supply conditions. In contrast, food, beverages, and tobacco groups maintained a low coefficient of variation, indicating relative price convergence in essential tradable goods across internal and external markets, which reflects the influence of trade integration and common pricing benchmarks.
Despite this relative price stabilization in some sectors, social outcomes remain under severe pressure.
Wage and poverty indicators show that relative price stability has not translated into social stability, highlighting a disconnect between macro-level indicators and household welfare. Wages in both the public and private sectors remain below the abject poverty line, with increasing reliance on remittances and external income sources, indicating a structural inadequacy in domestic income generation. Accordingly, the central issue at the end of 2025 is not only inflation control, but also preventing its transformation into a persistent pattern of rising costs for the reproduction of daily life—particularly in housing, energy, and transport—suggesting that without addressing these core sectors, inflation will continue to erode living standards.
