Monthly Bulletin on Consumer Prices and Inflation in Syria, Issue (5) – May 2026
5 Minutes
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Executive summary
The results of the Consumer Price and Inflation Bulletin in Syria for May 2026 indicate an acceleration in inflationary pressures, coinciding with the repricing of fuel and the adjustment of the weight of the bread bundle, and the associated increase in transportation, production, and consumption costs. The general Consumer Price Index rose from 716.4 points in May 2025 to 1,002 points in May 2026, recording a Y-o-Y inflation rate of 39.9 per cent. On a monthly basis, the index increased from 945.1 points in April to 1,002 points in May, representing an M-o-M inflation rate of approximately 6 per cent.
Monthly pressures were concentrated in the groups most closely associated with pricing decisions. Prices in the transportation group increased by 17.6 per cent following the adjustment of petroleum product prices on 7 May and the resulting rise in the operating costs of transport services and the transportation of goods. Similarly, reducing the weight of the bread bundle from 1.2 kilograms to 1.05 kilograms, while maintaining its price at SYP 4,000, raised the implicit price per kilogram by approximately 14.3 per cent, from about SYP 3,333 to around SYP 3,810. The decision therefore constituted an effective increase in the price of bread despite the unchanged nominal price of the bundle. The significance of the May shock lies in the fact that it resulted not only from general market developments, but also from direct administrative pricing decisions affecting fuel and bread. Households, particularly poor households dependent on locally earned wages, consequently bore a double burden: higher transportation and energy costs on the one hand, and a higher cost of basic food on the other.
On a Y-o-Y basis, the housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels group recorded the highest increase among the main consumption groups, at 58.5 per cent, driven by a 65.7 per cent increase in rents and a 48.9 per cent rise in electricity, gas, and other fuel prices. This reflects the extension of inflationary pressures to essential expenditures that households have limited scope to reduce or forgo, particularly housing, energy, and transportation.
Price levels and living costs also continued to vary across governorates, reflecting differences in energy sources, pricing systems, transportation and supply costs, multiple monetary and administrative spheres, and weak market integration. The abject poverty line for the reference household reached approximately SYP 3.437 million per month, compared with SYP 5.407 million for the lower poverty line and SYP 7.464 million for the upper poverty line. At the governorate level, Damascus recorded the highest abject poverty line, at approximately SYP 4.742 million, while As-Sweida recorded the lowest, at approximately SYP 2.176 million.
Bulletins – Issue (4) – April 2026
Energy and bread shock and repricing of basic goods and services during May 2026
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Bulletins – Issue (5) – May 2026
Monthly Bulletin on Consumer Prices and Inflation in Syria, Issue (5) – May 2026
5 Minutes
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Executive summary
The results of the Consumer Price and Inflation Bulletin in Syria for May 2026 indicate an acceleration in inflationary pressures, coinciding with the repricing of fuel and the adjustment of the weight of the bread bundle, and the associated increase in transportation, production, and consumption costs. The general Consumer Price Index rose from 716.4 points in May 2025 to 1,002 points in May 2026, recording a Y-o-Y inflation rate of 39.9 per cent. On a monthly basis, the index increased from 945.1 points in April to 1,002 points in May, representing an M-o-M inflation rate of approximately 6 per cent.
Monthly pressures were concentrated in the groups most closely associated with pricing decisions. Prices in the transportation group increased by 17.6 per cent following the adjustment of petroleum product prices on 7 May and the resulting rise in the operating costs of transport services and the transportation of goods. Similarly, reducing the weight of the bread bundle from 1.2 kilograms to 1.05 kilograms, while maintaining its price at SYP 4,000, raised the implicit price per kilogram by approximately 14.3 per cent, from about SYP 3,333 to around SYP 3,810. The decision therefore constituted an effective increase in the price of bread despite the unchanged nominal price of the bundle. The significance of the May shock lies in the fact that it resulted not only from general market developments, but also from direct administrative pricing decisions affecting fuel and bread. Households, particularly poor households dependent on locally earned wages, consequently bore a double burden: higher transportation and energy costs on the one hand, and a higher cost of basic food on the other.
On a Y-o-Y basis, the housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels group recorded the highest increase among the main consumption groups, at 58.5 per cent, driven by a 65.7 per cent increase in rents and a 48.9 per cent rise in electricity, gas, and other fuel prices. This reflects the extension of inflationary pressures to essential expenditures that households have limited scope to reduce or forgo, particularly housing, energy, and transportation.
Price levels and living costs also continued to vary across governorates, reflecting differences in energy sources, pricing systems, transportation and supply costs, multiple monetary and administrative spheres, and weak market integration. The abject poverty line for the reference household reached approximately SYP 3.437 million per month, compared with SYP 5.407 million for the lower poverty line and SYP 7.464 million for the upper poverty line. At the governorate level, Damascus recorded the highest abject poverty line, at approximately SYP 4.742 million, while As-Sweida recorded the lowest, at approximately SYP 2.176 million.
