• The bulletin provides an independent assessment of consumer prices and inflation rates in all Syrian regions based on a monthly survey of consumer prices carried out by the Syrian Center for Policy Research (SCPR) since October 2020. The SCPR had developed a methodology for building a price index based on components of the consumer basket, weighting, and market selection (See SCPR’s Consumer Price Index in Syria)
• The aggregate Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Syria recorded a month on month (M-o-M) inflation rate of 1.3 per cent during October 2025, indicating the persistence of price pressures on overall goods and services. Sectoral analysis shows that these inflationary pressures are primarily concentrated in three main groups: 1) Education, 2) Tobacco and Smoking, and 3) Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages.
• An analysis of price variance between the three regions—SYP-Governed Areas (SYP-GA) (formerly regime areas), TL-Governed Areas (TL-GA) (formerly interim and salvation areas), and the Autonomous Administration (AA)—at the level of main consumption groups reveals that the “Education” group was the most variant in prices during October 2025, with the “Transport” group ranking second. Conversely, key groups such as “Tobacco and Smoking,” “Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages,” and “Miscellaneous Goods and Services” show relative stability (i.e., a low coefficient of variation).
• Monthly inflation was driven by three core groups during October 2025. The “Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages” group accounted for the largest share, contributing alone 50.1 per cent of this increase, followed directly by the “Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels” group, which contributed 24.5 per cent, and the “Education” group at 11.3 per cent.
• The Central Bank of Syria continued to fix the official exchange rate (for remittances and exchange) at SYP 11,055 per USD during October 2025. Meanwhile, the informal market exchange rate showed sharp fluctuations, ranging from SYP 11,466 to reaching SYP 11,943 per USD by the end of the month.
• The average monthly wage for a university-educated public sector employee (at the start of appointment) in Syria reached approximately SYP 1.14 million in October 2025. Meanwhile, the average monthly wage for a private sector worker was SYP 1.29 million, whereas a civil sector employee recorded SYP 2.74 million during the same month.
• The abject poverty line for a household (as an indicator of food deprivation) at the Syrian national level reached SYP 2.85 million per month in October 2025. The lower poverty line reached SYP 4.47 million, and the upper poverty line reached SYP 6.17 million. Poverty lines recorded their highest levels in the governorates of Damascus, Rural Damascus, Homs, and Aleppo, while the governorates of Deir-Ezzor, Lattakia, As-Sweida, and Al-Hasakeh recorded the lowest values for poverty lines during October 2025.
• Analysis of the coverage ratios of average monthly wages to poverty lines in Syria (October 2025) reveals a deep structural crisis in income adequacy, particularly in the public and private sectors. At the national level, the general average shows a severe deficit, as the wages of a government university employee and a private sector worker are approximately 55-60 per cent lower than the abject poverty line. This gap widens to exceed 79-81 per cent when compared to the upper poverty line.

  Monthly Inflation (M-o-M) for consumer prices in Syria during October 2025 (in per cent)

  

Categories: Bulletins, Monthly Bulletins, Monthly Bulletins 2025, October, Publication

Tags: Monthly Bulletin, SCPR, Syria