• The bulletin provides an independent assessment of consumer prices and inflation rates in all Syrian regions based on a monthly survey of consumer prices carried out by the Syrian Center for Policy Research (SCPR) since October 2020. The SCPR had developed a methodology for building a price index based on components of the consumer basket, weighting, and market selection (See SCPR’s Consumer Price Index in Syria)
• Following the transition from the previous regime, Syria remains fragmented into multiple control areas, each with varying pricing policies, currency exchange rates, and wage structures. The Syrian Interim Caretaker Government has assumed control over border crossings, but disparities persist, including fragmented legal and educational frameworks. January 2025 was characterized by numerous ministerial decisions enacted in the absence of a legislative body, directly impacting consumer goods prices and the local currency exchange rate.
• The Central Bank of Syria implemented several key monetary decisions in January, including canceling the daily transfer ceiling, granting banking institutions greater flexibility, postponing loan installments for affected customers, and suspending foreign currency deposits and interest rate bulletins. Despite these measures, a liquidity crisis persists, with banks limiting withdrawals and the official exchange rate differing significantly from the parallel market rate.
• On the fiscal front, the Minister of Finance suspended the 2025 state budget, implementing a twelfth budget system until economic stabilization. The government also suspended salaries for certain military personnel and delayed payments for retirees. Additionally, salaries for many government employees in previously controlled areas were not paid, and job restructuring led to dismissals and replacements.
• The caretaker government pursued an open import policy, leading to a surge of foreign products in Syrian markets. Many local factories ceased production due to high costs and competition. Imports from Turkey and other countries exceeded USD 500 million in December 2024 and January 2025. The Customs Police was dissolved, and a General Authority for Land and Sea Ports was established, standardizing customs duties across most Syrian crossings, excluding those of the Autonomous Administration. This resulted in increased duties in some regions and reductions in others, with duties set in US dollars per ton or piece, leading to various economic impacts, particularly in the automotive sector.
• After a significant price increase in December 2024, the CPI saw a 13 per cent monthly decline in January 2025. However, the composition of inflation changed due to the liberalization of fuel prices and reduced customs duties. The Clothing and Shoes, Household Equipment, Tobacco, and Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages groups saw price decreases, while Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Transportation groups experienced price increases.
• The Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages group saw a 15.5 per cent price decline, with significant reductions in legumes, vegetables, fats, oils, seafood, and sweets. Non-alcoholic beverage prices also decreased due to lower mineral water, tea, and coffee prices. The Tobacco group saw a 19.5 per cent decline due to smuggled foreign tobacco. Household Equipment and Supplies, Clothing and Shoes, and Transportation groups also experienced notable price reductions due to increased imports, reduced demand, and stable fuel prices, respectively.
• All Syrian governorates, except Idleb and rural Aleppo, recorded a decline in consumer commodity prices, ranging from 5.3 to 21.6 per cent. Daraa governorate saw the most significant decrease, while Aleppo governorate’s decline was lower due to a price increase in rural areas under the Syrian Interim Government (SIG). Idleb governorate experienced a 4.7 per cent price increase due to the standardization of customs tariffs and increased consumer demand.
• The unofficial exchange rate of the Syrian pound appreciated by 22.9 per cent against the US dollar in January 2025, while the official exchange rate was adjusted slightly. The appreciation is linked to the liquidity crisis and government policies. The Turkish lira depreciated slightly in Northwestern Syria.
• The monthly inflation decline was primarily driven by decreases in the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Transportation categories. Regional variations showed different contributions from these groups.
• Average monthly salaries varied significantly across sectors and regions. Public sector wages were lowest, while civil sector wages were highest. Wages in SIG & SSG areas were generally higher than in other regions. Many government employees in caretaker government areas did not receive wages, while salary increases were implemented in SIG areas.
• Abject, lower, and upper poverty lines were established for January 2025, showing reductions from the previous month. The highest poverty line levels were in Damascus, Homs, and Rural Damascus, while the lowest were in Sweida, Al-Hasakeh, and Idleb. Wage gaps from poverty lines were significant, with public sector employees facing the largest gaps. Civil sector workers in SIG & SSG areas earned wages above the abject poverty line, while those in caretaker government areas earned below.
• January 2025 saw significant economic fluctuations in Syria, marked by price declines, currency appreciation, and varying regional impacts. Government policies, including monetary and fiscal measures, foreign trade regulations, and customs standardization, played a crucial role in shaping these changes. Wage disparities and poverty levels remain critical concerns, with many Syrians struggling to meet basic needs. The report highlights the complex economic challenges facing Syria as it navigates the post-regime transition.

Categories: Bulletins, January, Monthly Bulletins, Monthly Bulletins 2025, Publication

Tags: SCPR, Syria